Even though we are about 8 months from the first votes, my predictions for the nominations are as follows: Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. Despite some unease among Democrats, there are many structural advantages that Hillary enjoys -- loads of money, high name recognition, frontloaded primary season, and the popularity/campaign skills of her husband. Hillary, as evidenced by her races in New York, is also a formidable campaigner in her own right. Obama and Edwards will make strong challenges, but I think Hillary will prevail.
As far as the Republicans are concerned, I think Romney is most likely at this point. McCain is distrusted by the base, though his unwavering support of Bush's war has probably earned him a few points among party activists. Giuliani's position on social issues make him an unlikely choice for Republicans. Though Romney has changed his positions on some social issues to match party regulars, he has done it in a way that I believe the base will forgive. Of course, the expected candidacy of Fred Thompson could pose a serious threat to Romney. I don't believe the potential candidacy of Newt Gingrich will gather much traction, as Republicans will not see him as a viable general election candidate.
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